Analysis of the anthropogenic environmental risks and their evaluation regarding future climatic changes for the metropolitan Buenos Aires region

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to compare possible effects of climatic changes (precipitation and sea level variations) with the anthropogenic changes along the coast of Buenos Aires city. An increase in the accumulative precipitation of 4.1 mm per year since 1960 was detected, as well as a climatic tropicalization. Long-term trends in sea-level rise were estimated to be 1,6 mm per year for Buenos Aires. The rise in water level accompanying larger storm surges is similar to the estimated mean sea-level rise. Human activities have been modifying the coastal morphology since 1830. The main changes introduced were: artificial filling of the coast, changes in coastal configuration, elevation of water table, surface impermeabilization, disintegration of the drainage patterns, straightening and channelization of creeks, changes of longitudinal river profiles, topographic and landform changes. Changes in precipitation associated with climatic change will tend to increase the flood extent and frequency as well as the level of the water-table. Increased sediment discharge in the Río Paraná, caused by increased rainfall, could provoke a greater rate of delta progradation. On the whole, anthropogenic changes have produced a greater impact on the coast than those related to climatic changes. Future plans for the coastal management of Buenos Aires city should take into account both, human activities and trends in global change.