Mathematical model for the prediction of recession curves

Abstract

Prediction of recession curves remains an important task for management of diversions or reservoirs that affect flow in streams during low-flow periods. There have been many approaches to baseflow recession applying either power or exponential equations, but there has not been any successful approach to link the parameters of these exponential and power equations such as the turnover time of the groundwater storage with hydrological parameters, and the initial peak discharge before the recession and the recession time. The Fenton and Mount Hope Rivers basin are neighbors, located in Northeast of the State of Connecticut. This research developed and tested a mathematical model in exponential form to simulate discharges during recession with coefficients related with the initial peak discharge before recession and time of recession. The recession model was applied and calibrated in the Mount Hope and Fenton Rivers. The results found that the recession model showed good approximation for the representation of the recession phenomenon, to predict the recession discharge for low flows in the Mount Hope and Fenton Rivers.